With the Masters teeing off this weekend, golf fans and bettors alike will be particularly interested in the status of Tiger Woods.
Arguably the greatest and most famous golfer of all time, Woods has a chance to join Jack Nicklaus as the only player to win six career green jackets. But, what are the odds? And does Tiger yield any value on the betting market?
In many ways, Woods has already defied the odds. His horrific car accident in February 2021 nearly cost him one of his legs, and the road to rehabilitation and recovery has been understandably daunting. The five-time Masters champ has struggled to finish 4-day tournaments since the accident.
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Still, this is Augusta we're talking about — and Tiger will play the Masters as long as he's invited. The modern GOAT of golf has 15 major championship victories to his name, and he remains one of the most popular and polarizing superstars in all of sports.
Let's take a look at Woods' odds to win the 2024 Masters, as well as some other odds and props involving the famed 48-year-old.
Odds courtesy of FanDuel and DraftKings Sportsbook
Just like last year, Woods isn't among the favorites to win the 2024 Masters. However, major sportsbooks like FanDuel and DraftKings are hardly listing him as a long shot. FD only listed 40 golfers ahead of Tiger on their outright odds board, while DK listed 43 pros with shorter odds. For context, 89 players currently comprise the field.
This could be due to Woods showing up to Augusta on Monday at 8:00 a.m. ET, an early-bird approach he hasn't taken in many years. Many feel that Tiger acclimating himself to the course and environment earlier will have a profound effect on his game, as well as his mindset to get through the four days.
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Of course, Tiger also has such natural talent as a golfer — and such a massive collective interest from the betting community — that oddsmakers don't want to take on a large Tiger liability or pay out big tickets if and when he once again defies the odds.
Tiger's first Masters following his 2021 car wreck came in 2022, and he unbelievably finished solo 47th. He made the cut at Augusta last year, but he ultimately withdrew before the rain-delayed third round resumed. He cited plantar fasciitis in his right foot as the reason for his early exit.
As long as Woods is upright, oddsmakers will take caution when setting his odds to win a sixth green jacket. Here's how the books have Woods' outright odds listed this weekend:
These odds are certainly longer than most golf fans and bettors expect to see for Woods. That said, if any other golfer on the tour missed as much time as Tiger has due to recovering from injuries suffered from a major car accident, their odds would be a lot longer than those of Woods. So, all things considered, some of these odds are actually surprisingly short.
Of course, there is far more to Tiger Woods and The Masters betting market than simply odds to win.
Unsurprisingly, books are offering plenty of Tiger prop bet specials for this week. Here are a few currently listed on FanDuel:
It will always be tempting to target shorter Tiger-related odds, because those seem like the most likely to hit. However, we must bet with our heads and not our hearts, and that requires doing some due diligence in the form of research.
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For instance, a quick look at Woods' past Masters scorecards reveals that he rarely birdies the first hole. He typically makes par on 1, carding a birdie just once across his three Masters starts since 2020. He did birdie twice on the opening hole at the Genesis in February, but many would contend that Riviera Country Club and Augusta National are drastically different challenges.
Woods does typically start strong at Augusta, so a modest wager on him going bogey-free in Round 1 could be a fun little bet. We see better value in that prop at +3000 than the +900 for any bogey-free round. Let's face it, folks — he's past the point in his career when he gets better as a four-day tournament progresses.
If you really want to get in some Tiger action, bet the "any two" of Woods, McIlroy, and Koepka to finish in the top 10. That way, even if Tiger struggles, gets hurt, and/or withdraws, you still more than likely have a deep rooting interest in two of the top contenders in the field.
Lastly, let's take a look at BetMGM's Tiger-related cut props on FanDuel:
Again, we see not only the level of respect bestowed upon Tiger's name and reputation, but also the cautious nature of sportsbooks when dealing with veterans who have massive talent and past levels of success.
Just like last year, we highly recommend betting Tiger to make the cut. He has never missed the cut at the Masters as a professional, and will be going after a tournament-record 24th consecutive made cut after tying Gary Player and Fred Couples last year.
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Why are the odds for Woods to win the Masters shorter than expected? As Sporting News golf expert Jacob Camenker explained two years ago, "it all has to do with how sportsbooks operate."
Perfectly stated by my colleague. The name of the game for sportsbooks is to draw action with attractive odds, and then adjust the lines accordingly to offset liability.
Tiger winning is much more of a long shot than some of his listed odds suggest, but conveying the false narrative that he's a good bet could lure the casual bettor into backing the veteran to pull off the improbable.
Then, when Tiger bets start to quell, the books can always offer more bets with better payouts to command more betting interest.
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Even if you are just making a lottery-ticket, low-stakes bet, a wager on Tiger to win the Masters at this point in his career seems almost like a throwaway.
We don't expect a dominant, four-round showing like he exhibited in 2019, if for no other reason than the fact that he rarely even plays anymore. We're talking about betting a rusty 48-year-old to beat out dozens of the best players in the sport for the coveted green jacket.
If you're betting anything Tiger-related, bet him to play a bogey-free Round 1 (+3000) or to make the cut (-104). Again, we love Tiger in the opening round of the Masters, but we'd fade him completely after the middle rounds — and we want no part of anything related to his finishing position.
Anything's possible, but the odds are stacked against Tiger making history and taking down his sixth green jacket as the oldest Masters winner of all time. We get being a fan of the most dominating golfer of the past three decades — but as bettors, we also must commit ourselves more to reason than rooting interests.
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