Real Madrid and Manchester City meet in the Champions League knockout stage for the third straight season as Los Blancos will host Pep Guardiola's gang at the Bernabeu on Tuesday.
The two sides have split the last two meetings, and on both occasions, the winner would go on to lift the trophy. In 2022, Real Madrid turned around a 4-3 first leg deficit with a 3-1 win at home in the second leg to reach the semifinals. The following year, Man City clobbered Real Madrid 4-0 at home in the second leg to book a place in the final.
Oddly, while the two clubs both enter sporting lengthy unbeaten runs, neither side comes into this matchup in particularly lights-out form.
Real Madrid have not lost to anyone not named Atletico Madrid all year, but they've played to four draws since the start of February, including three of them at home. Meanwhile, Man City haven't been beaten in any competition in 2024, but they face a deficit in the Premier League title race as Erling Haaland is struggling through a goal slump.
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As defending treble winners, Manchester City are slight favourites on the road at the Bernabeu here, but in truth, it's a tough one to call, and the betting market reflects that, with both sides given plus moneyline odds to emerge victorious.
Goals are expected as well, but not too many — the poor goal scoring form of Erling Haaland plus the hit-or-miss Real Madrid attack has the market a bit muted as well.
To put it plainly, Manchester City are as vulnerable in European play as they have ever been. While Real Madrid don't exactly feel like Champions League title contenders either, just based on their recent performances, they aren't as down in the dumps as City. There's a real nervousness around City supporters that they could follow up their famous treble with a trophy-less season.
Pep Guardiola has managed to keep the ship afloat well amidst injuries and form issues, and Phil Foden has carried this team when necessary, but it feels as if a defeat has been coming for some time. They certainly won't find themselves out of the two-legged matchup, but walking away from the Bernabeu with a result would be impressive.
The only two injured Real Madrid players at the moment are those who suffered ACL tears earlier in the season. David Alaba is done for the season after doing his cruciate ligament in December, while Thibaut Courtois nearly made it all the way back before a subsequent meniscus tear has him down until May. Eder Militao, who tore his ACL last summer, has only just made his return and will be brought back slowly, likely not yet ready for a starting role.
Manchester City's injured list is similarly short, but those who do appear are critical players. Most notably, Kyle Walker is absent with a hamstring issue, and his absence will be heavily felt on the right flank against Madrid superstar Vinicus Jr. Also ruled out is Nathan Ake who is only just starting to make his return from a calf injury suffered last month. The bit of good news is that goalkeeper Ederson is doing "much better" according to Pep Guardiola, and could be available for this match, while Josko Gvardiol is a doubt.
Sure, we expect Real Madrid to come away with a victory, but the value here is just too good to pass up for the Premier League's most in-form attacker. While Erling Haaland slumps (by his standards, at least), Phil Foden is collecting Haaland-like volume in front of goal.
The 23-year-old has two Premier League hat-tricks since the start of February, and has been good for his end product in terms of chances, collecting 39 shots in nine games across that span worth 4.47 xG. He's been able to translate that great Premier League form to Europe as well, scoring in four of his six Champions League appearances to this point, including the road win at Copenhagen and one in the group stage at RB Leipzig.
Foden was rested over the weekend against Crystal Palace, so he should be fully fit for this vitally important game. Haaland's plus-money goal scoring odds are also intriguing given his prolific Champions League history, but the value on Foden is simply too enticing to shy away from.
While recent matchups between these two teams have seen goals racked up on both ends, there's a few reasons why this match could be different. First, the last time Real Madrid hosted Man City in the first leg of a UCL matchup was last year, and the match finished in a 1-1 draw.
Additionally, stars on both sides are in questionable goal scoring form. While Vinicius Jr is on a hot streak, Rodrygo has begun to slump. Rodrygo bagged a brace against Athletic Club last time out with Vinicus suspended, but even with that pair, he has just three La Liga goals in 2024, and did not find the net in either Round of 16 leg against RB Leipzig.
Meanwhile, Erling Haaland is toiling through the toughest slump of his Man City career, with six goals in 12 matches across the Premier League and Champions League since returning from injury in late January. While those numbers are still excellent for most strikers, by Haaland's astronomical standards, they're quite muted.
And yet...it's just too risky to pick under 2.5 goals at even money. The value here is putrid, but if you're looking for a good parlay option, this is it. It's hard to see this match turning into a barnburner, but the safety of the half-goal is critical.
There's one man who sits above the rest at Real Madrid when it comes to dangerous chances, and that is Vinicius Jr. Rodrygo takes over when his fellow Brazilian is out or having an off day, but Vinicius is the first name up on the list of Real Madrid attacking options.
What's more is Vinicius has been an early option for Real Madrid recently. Since returning from injury in mid-January, Vinicus has scored in six La Liga games and another in the Champions League. Of those seven matches, he has been first goal scorer in four of them, including in each of the last three, and he has been his team's first goal scorer in two others after Madrid fell behind.
This Champions League quarterfinal first leg will be streamed in English exclusively on Paramount+, as CBS Sports decided the Arsenal vs Bayern Munich game will be televised on the network instead.
Real Madrid vs Man City will, however, be televised in Spanish on TUDN and UniMas, which are available to stream on Fubo. Finally, there is also a Spanish-language stream available on ViX.
In the UK, the match will be televised domestically on TNT Sports 2, and streamed on the broadcaster's dedicated streaming service discovery+. In Canada, the exclusive broadcast provider for the UEFA Champions League is DAZN, who will stream this as they do every game across this year's UCL competition.
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